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February 28

Excerpt from Global Monetary Viewpoint

“Markets are celebrating the apparent postponement of economic and political danger in three areas. First, the dominant view in the market-place appears to be that Fed Chief Powell has successfully postponed the transition of asset inflation into its dangerous end-phase of asset deflation and recession. Second, there is strong expectation that the immediate postponement of US- China tariff war will lead on to indefinite postponement. Third, the capitulation of the May government to the EU withdrawal terms and effective ruling out of a no-deal Brexit is being celebrated in the markets as meaning that no deal is now permanently off the table. All these hopes of indefinite postponement are likely to be dashed.”