Fed and ECB “data dependence” is futile: how asset inflation will end this time

The lesson of history is that fine-tuning monetary policy, with the intention of pre-empting the passage of the business cycle from expansion into recession phase, is an example of what King Solomon described as the futility of futilities.  This lesson does not derive from a doom-premise of seven years of famine, following seven years of fat.   Rather, there is the inability of even the most gifted policy makers to assess accurately, in real time, the current state of an economy, and where it is headed; and even if such an assessment could be made, there are no precision tools in the monetary tool box which could improve reliably the outcome. 

Market illusions of indefinite postponement: asset deflation, no deal Brexit and tariff war

Marcel Proust wrote that “in the markets, an ill emperor is already dead and a besieged city already fallen”, and so it seems with postponement.  The end phase of asset inflation, possibly delayed by a Powell put, will never take place. A China-US tariff war postponed means lasting economic peace between the two nations.  A “no deal” Brexit postponed means it will never occur.